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China has sent its maritime law enforcement through the maritime area of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past outlying Japanese territory as Beijing ramps up strains following the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

On Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its vessels carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Japan but also claimed by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the recent developments come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has indicated it demands a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it describes as “unification”. It has left open the military option. The island's administration and citizens overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An attack or invasion by China would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the United States and other allies including Tokyo, which has land just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Defense Operations

On the island, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was likely the coast guard, active near the island over the past 24 hours.

Official charts released showed up to three drones operating near the island and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are not rare, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said China had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. The island documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been experiencing increased strain from China since the Japanese official made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, Beijing cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Media Response

Late on Saturday, a official press commentary charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other powers, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.